romney leading and the average polls taken between october and the election gave mr. obama a 48.8% chance of a popular vote, 2.3 points less than his winning total, 51.1%." so william gholston's analysis. your thoughts? caller: my thoughts are that i think in six months it will be more meaningful. but we also cannot predict what is going to go on in the israel-hamas war or ukraine, with iran. nobody could have predicted those things prior to them actually happening. so there is a lot of uncertainty , and i think that polling is effectively useful this far out. host: thank you. you mentioned israel and hamas, he me mention programming later today on c-span3, a hearing on u.s. support for israel, officials from the state and defense department will be testifying before the house foreign affairs committee at 2:00 p.m. eastern on c-span3 and c-span.org and the free app. the house comes in in five minutes and we will take you to the house floor when they do. your phone calls until they gavel in. this is jane, independent. good morning. caller: good morning. i am not a very